Home Hand Games 5 wise wagers for May 28 and May 29, 2022

5 wise wagers for May 28 and May 29, 2022

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Quite a few divisional battles taking place this weekend, several of which feature some of the best bets on the DraftKings Sportsbook.

Outside of his implosion vs. the Jays, Bieber has been right around this number in every start since late April. Now, he’s generally just narrowly gone over this number, striking out exactly seven hitters in three of his last six starts. But in his last start, which came against this same Tigers team, Bieber punched out 10.

Detroit’s 24.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching is tied for fifth-highest in all of baseball with Arizona and Tampa Bay. Furthermore, the Tigers have one of the lower walk rates against righties and are among the bottom two in OPS, ISO and wOBA.

The Tigers also have the third-highest swinging-strike rate of any team this month. If you look at how often they’re swinging at pitches out of the zone (36.9% o-swing rate) and how little they make contact on those offerings (62.2% o-contact rate), their 12.7% swinging-strike rate comes as no surprise. Bieber may not be getting swinging strikes to the level he has in the past, but 13.2% still puts him among the best 14 starters in the game and is plenty good enough to back him on this play.

Saturday’s contest marks the 21st time the Marlins will be favored on the run line (+160) this season. They’ve only covered in six of those contests, but they’re 10-10 straight up in those games. If Jazz Chisholm returns Saturday, taking Miami on the run line is viable. But, there’s less of a need to get greedy with the moneyline hanging right around even-money while Sandy Alcántara is on the mound.

Although he’s had a couple hiccups this season, Miami’s Saturday starter has been tough on opposing hitters. He’s coming off a brilliant outing against this very Atlanta lineup — which featured Ronald Acuña and Marcell Ozuna at the time. If you’re looking for a way to back Alcántara alone, the Braves are +135 to score under 1.5 runs through the first five innings.

Now, the Marlins haven’t exactly been the toughest team on left-handed pitching this season. But, Tucker Davidson isn’t exactly the best left-hander going these days. The top of Miami’s order has done quite a bit of damage against lefties to start 2022, and they should be able to pack enough punch with Alcantara on the mound.

Hosmer has been rolling these last five games, but he hasn’t broken through for a long ball in quite some time. He’s a worthwhile dart throw at +600 to go yard against JT Brubaker, who has a 52.9% fly-ball rate against left-handed hitters this season. Still, Hosmer’s total bases prop is plenty appealing at plus-money.

Although San Diego’s first baseman hasn’t been as tough on right-handed pitching as he was to start 2022, Brubaker is someone who can help Hosmer build on the momentum he’s gained over the last five games (7-for-18). On top of that high fly-ball rate against lefties, Pittsburgh’s starter has allowed left-handed hitting to generate a 37.3% hard-contact rate this season.

Major League hitters have welcomed Elvin Rodriguez to the bigs with open arms. He’s given up four runs in both of his 2022 appearances, and now he’s facing a Guardians lineup that’s Top 10 in wOBA, OPS and ISO against right-handed pitching.

The Tigers, on the other hand, have not been as good against righty pitchers, putting Triston McKenzie in a spot to go off Saturday. He’s only had one hiccup all season, and it came against the Angels in late April — when they were mashing everyone. Detroit has one of the higher strikeout rates against right-handed pitching and rate among the bottom two in OPS, ISO and wOBA. This outing might be the biggest mismatch of any this weekend.

If you’re into pitchers’ duels, this matchup is for you. Luis Severino has responded to a three-game rough patch by giving up one run over his last 13 innings. Although the Rays have been tougher on right-handed pitching than the two opponents Severino just faced, they’re still middle of the pack against righties.

The Yankees, on the other hand, have been tough on left-handed pitching. But Shane McClanahan isn’t just any lefty. He’s given up one run over his last three starts, which spanned 20 innings. He might give up more walks than Severino, but he’ll gives up fewer hits.

Also, these two starters have quality bullpens backing them. If you’re trying to figure out which team to back in this one: New York has the big bats, but the Rays (-120) are the play because they’re always scary in close games.

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