Last week: 6-3-1 ATS, 3-7 over / under
Season to date: 27-26-1 ATS, 27-26-1 over / under
Ah yes, Bad Gambling Advice this season is only making you lose money on the vig. While 27-26-1 is technically a winner, well, he doesn’t win enough to nullify the price of the bet. Week 5 was actually good for ATS picks, with Texas / TCU being a push, and Missouri being shocking to be cleared by Tennessee… but with everything else generally fine. The over / unders, on the other hand, well … I didn’t expect Tennessee to almost cover the over by himself, and I also didn’t expect Ole Miss / Alabama to be relatively weak.
See you this week!
Oklahoma vs. Texas (11:00 a.m.CT, ABC, at Cotton bowl in Dallas)
So far Oklahoma hasn’t given me much reason to trust them. I thought they would suffer a loss at Kansas State last week, but they survived it; now it’s down to Red River, where they could put it together … but probably not. Texas looked impressive outside of the Arkansas game.
Score prediction: Texas 35, Oklahoma 31
Picks: Texas +3.5, Over 63.5
Vanderbilt Florida (11:00 a.m. CT, SEC Network)
Under normal circumstances I would advise you to stay away from a huge line like this, just because at this point you are guessing “when will Dan Mullen shoot his starters” and “Vanderbilt will score. he on the backups of Florida “. Under the premise of this weekly column, I have to make a choice.
Score Prediction: (will be published in Saturday Predictions)
Picks: Vanderbilt +39, Under 59.5
Arkansas at Ole Miss (11:00 a.m. CT, ESPN)
This line opened at 6.5 and is now at 5. I liked Ole Miss at 6.5 (because winning by a touchdown wins you the bet, which is valuable) and so it’s hard to tell that I do not like them at 5, because why is not it?
Score prediction: Ole Miss 35, Arkansas 21
Choice: Ole Miss -5, Under 67
South Carolina to Tennessee (11:00 a.m. CT, ESPN2)
Tennessee is downright overvalued here after a resounding victory over Missouri which probably says more about Missouri than the Flights. Having said that, South Carolina isn’t very good so picking them up (especially on the road) is a little scary… but I think they’ll cover that line.
Score prediction: Tennessee 31, SC 21
Picks: South Carolina +10.5, Under 57
Georgia to Auburn (2:30 p.m. CT, CBS)
I’ve been quietly impressed with Auburn so far this season, especially after hitting the road and beating LSU for the first time in ages. I don’t think it will be particularly important here, as they run into an absolute jigsaw.
Score prediction: Georgia 31, Auburn 7
Picks: Georgia -15.5, Under 46.5
North Texas to Missouri (3:00 p.m. CT, SEC Network)
No, North Texas is not very good. However, I’m extremely interested in the fading of Missouri, who are 0-5 ATS this season and just got completely gasped by Tennessee at home. Sometimes a trend just shouldn’t be ignored.
Score prediction: Missouri 45, North Texas 28
Picks: North Texas +19, Over 70
LSU in Kentucky (6:30 p.m. CT, SEC network)
I hate choosing games like this because even though LSU has seemed completely dysfunctional this season, there’s always a chance they’ll remember “oh, okay we’re a lot more talented than Kentucky” and win. this game on the road. However, I wouldn’t bet on it.
Score prediction: Kentucky 28, LSU 21
Picks: Kentucky -3.5, under 51
Alabama to Texas A&M (7:00 p.m. CT, CBS)
If you still believe in Texas A&M, well, I don’t know why you would at this point. Their attack and defense will not save them from Alabama.
Score Prediction: Alabama 35, Texas A&M 7
Picks: Alabama -17.5, less than 50.5