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Best NFL Week 11 Bets


With no thanks to the Atlanta Falcons or the Cleveland Browns defense, Week 10 was a success in that space at 3-2 overall in the NFL picks. It wasn’t fancy at all, but over the course of 10 weeks of NFL action, a 59% winning clip emerged and there’s no shame in it. Week 11 is a bit of a weird map overall, but, as we do every week, let’s check the progress of the season before handing out any winners.

  • Last week: 3-2
  • Season 2021: 29-20-1

Come and find these winners.

Atlanta Falcons (+7) vs. New England Patriots

It’s really gross and I can’t believe I’m doing it. Atlanta was hideous last week and New England won by a million. Both teams have been involved in stray choices in this space. That line opened well below seven, dropped to 7.5 (!) In some places, and has now settled into that range. I tend to trust the home teams a little more on Thursday night, and while the Falcons are inconsistent to say the least, it would have been inconceivable for me to make seven with the Pats in Atlanta a few days ago in Atlanta. sadness. It’s an overreaction and I feel compelled to take the candy.

Washington and Carolina Panthers Football LESS than 43 points

Washington’s defense stinks, but so does Carolina’s offense. The Panthers will be heavy, maybe even more with Cam Newton, and I trust the Carolina defense there. It sounds like a legitimate slugfest and we’re going to need some field goals and punters.

Indianapolis Colts and Buffalo Bills LESS than 50 points

Buffalo’s offense isn’t quite dominant right now, but I’m confident in their defense. On the other hand, the Colts are more than happy to lead the ball, and I have long thought Indianapolis was better than the perception of the defense. This number is a high check mark.

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals

It’s the season for Seattle. They’ve been in freefall and, after a shutout loss to the Packers last week, the Seahawks are returning home to face a division rival. Arizona has been fantastic this season, but Kyler Murray won’t be 100 percent if he plays. Of course, we hope beyond hope that Russell Wilson got rid of the rust last week and is able to cook, but we are largely only playing the number and place here.

Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys

It’s been two weeks since Jekyll and Hyde of the Cowboys. They were horrible against Denver (and we took advantage of it) and they dominated Atlanta (and we didn’t). Meanwhile, Kansas City showed flashes of life last week. The Chiefs are generally an ultra-public team but, playing against a Dallas team after a dominant win, that’s not really the case, and we’re getting some value here at Arrowhead. Put down the small number.