LAS VEGAS – At a bar the other night, Notre Dame football served as the main course for Golden Nugget sports betting director Tony Miller and his friends.
Three-year-old starter Ian Book is gone, which means coach Brian Kelly’s alleged quarterback is senior 6-3 Jack Coan, a transfer from Wisconsin.
“What does Kelly have up her sleeve for the quarterback?” Miller said, parroting this tavern chatter.
Five-eleven sophomores Drew Pyne and 6-1 freshman Tyler Buchner wait in the wings of the Golden Dome.
In addition, almost the entire offensive line will be new. A total of nine Notre Dame players were selected in the NFL Draft, a record for Kelly’s 11 seasons at South Bend. That’s a ton of talent to replace.
These issues must be with the Irish fans, as the world base that exists in college football that hasn’t celebrated a national championship since 1988. Miller, however, expects the usual tsunami of green support.
“Notre Dame is one of the most public betting teams of all time,” Miller said. “The Irish will be included in all parades and public teasers every week. I’m not shadowing the numbers for this reason, but it’s still on my mind.
IRISH TESTS ARE ABUNDANT
These supporters made money by blindly betting on the Irish. Crossing two resources reveals Notre Dame is 42-34 (55.26%) against the spread since 2015.
A 52.38% win rate, of course, is needed just to break even, taking vigor into account. A $ 100 bettor therefore has a lead of 4.6 units, or $ 460, over this period.
The 2021 schedule is generally tough for the independent Irish, as evidenced by the South Point featuring nine of their 12 games out of the 97 Games of the year it released at the end of May.
Alabama, Auburn, Louisville and Ole Miss are each represented six times.
The Irish have only been overlooked once, scoring four points against Wisconsin on September 25 at Soldier Field.
In fact, for the past five weeks those Notre Dame lines haven’t budged or budged against the Irish, South Point sports betting manager Chris Andrews reported on Tuesday.
The biggest swing came on November 27 at Stanford, where silver took the Irish from favorites to 6 points to 9, then on September 5 at Florida State (-6 to -8) and October 9 to Virginia Tech (from -2 to -3.5).
Many opponents will also be well rested.
Brad Powers, Ace college football handicapper, notes an incredible six Irish enemies have byes before playing Notre Dame; no other team in the nation plays more than three opponents who are inactive before facing each other.
From Wisconsin, Cincinnati (Oct. 2), Virginia Tech (Oct. 9), USC (Oct. 23), and North Carolina (Oct. 30), only the Hokies don’t have a week off. leave before facing the Irish.
Coan will see familiar faces in the Badgers, but Wisconsin knows him as well. Advantage, Wisconsin, says Tyler, Texas-based handicapper Paul Stone.
“Badgers know [his] skills and will plan the game defensively to take advantage of their vulnerabilities.
Long Island capper Tom Barton senses Kelly could use a quick hook, so look for Pyne to take the reins. “But we all know the future is Buchner,” Barton said. He expects Kelly to redshirt Buchner.
The Bearcats, who have never faced the Irish, are the most exotic opponent on the Notre Dame calendar.
Cincinnati is 31-6 in coach Luke Fickell’s last three seasons. It was 9-0 a year ago before losing to Georgia 24-21 at the Peach Bowl. Desmond Ridder, a 6-4 senior quarterback, is a run-pass demon.
Under Kelly, fourth-place Cincinnati lost to Florida’s No.5 in the 2010 Sugar Bowl. So maybe it’s not the biggest game in Bearcats football history, but it is. is in the mix.
“Fickell will have them ready,” said San Diego handicapper Jim Schrope. “A Cincinnati win wouldn’t shock me. Cincinnati will never be so good.
At the Golden Nugget, Miller saw Cincinnati bet 200-1 to 100-1 as an outside contender for the national championship; the Irish are 30-1.
Schrope says Notre Dame’s decision against Virginia Tech is justified, even though he’s not skinny. He likes the Irish -2 against USC. “Maybe not for a full shot [unit], but a half shot.
Stone isn’t stunned by Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell, a Heisman prospect who loses elite wide receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. ” I do not think so [Howell’s] the numbers will be as good as in 2020, ”he said.
Stone pits Ireland’s regular-season winning tally at 8.5. DraftKings opened at 9, Under at -125 (risk $ 125 to win $ 100), which he favors since 10 wins make him a loser.
“It’s a big challenge compared to this schedule,” he said, “given some of their staff losses.”
Miller believes Kelly could count on junior 5-9 backer Kyren Williams, who ran for 1,125 yards and 13 touchdowns last season. “At 100-1,” Miller said, “he might be worth it to win the Heisman.”
That despicable Florida State opener, in which he saw the Irish as much as a 10.5-point favorite, scares Miller. The Seminoles were 21-29 in their last four seasons.
“There’s just something about the first game of the year, playing at home against a top 10 team like Notre Dame, that ignites a team and a crowd. I think [10.5 points is] a little high there.
“But the public will always lay it down, no matter what.”