Home Gambling Tiny Nick Game Pick: 5/25

Tiny Nick Game Pick: 5/25

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Locks

MLB (0.75 units) Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 8.5 (-110): 5:40 p.m. CT on Bally Sports OH

The Chicago Cubs seem to have found something at the plate, and it’s been driving up the score in their games recently. Their last 5 games have seen 5 overs averaging 12.8 runs per game, and I see another tonight. It helps that the pitching they faced and trotted themselves was below average at best, which is still the case here.

Kyle Hendricks is loved by some of the advanced metrics, but he once again mixes strong performances with all-out blasts. And the slowly improving Reds line-up has a strong history against him. As for Reds starter Luis Castillo, his current ERA of 4.60 started against 3 teams who are all pretty mediocre offensively.

A Cubbies team that has already put up 18 points against Cincy over the past 2 nights will likely do most of the work for that total themselves. Any contribution from the Reds here, and I see an easy over on a relatively low number.

MLB (0.75 units) Boston Red Sox/Chicago White Sox Over 7.5 (-110): 7:10 p.m. CT on the MLB Network

Speaking of teams finding extra gear offensively, Boston’s bats have been absolutely on fire lately. It’s taken long enough considering the talent on this roster, but the BoSox have scored 5 or more points in 10 of their last 13 games. It took 12 of those games over tonight’s total, and I don’t see any respite here.

Yes, there’s a breeze blowing tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field, but it’s nothing compared to what usually causes panic over the totals in Chicago. And yes, Lucas Giolito is going for the White Sox tonight, but he’s actually been pretty poor against right-handed bats this season. With an average of .286 allowed and .853 OPS right-handed, Giolito could get hit by a Boston squad tonight with most of his key power coming from the right side of the plate.

And forgive me if I no longer trust the shell of 42-year-old Rich Hill. He’s also battling right-handed bats that the ChiSox can stack the lineup with tonight. There’s way too much attacking potential in this game given the matchup spreads, and I see these teams fighting their way through such a low total.

degenerate

NBA Boston Celtics -2 @ Miami Heat (-110): 7:30 p.m. CT on ESPN

I’m having a hard time deciding on this game with a litany of X-factors impacting it. Miami being so dominant at home in the playoffs (at least until Boston smashes them in Game 2) and looking for a rebound here is tough to deal with. With the exception of wins in Games 6 and 7 against Milwaukee, the Celtics have alternated wins and losses over the past two series, so is it time for them to have another disappointment?

Still, I’m finally leaning cautiously toward Boston tonight. They certainly seem like the better team when you break this series down quarter by quarter. Somehow Miami managed to win 3 of 16 quarters but 2 of 4 games in this series, and one of them was the 4th quarter on Monday when they were already down 24 points. And if you’ve been following the rumour, there are reports that major Heat players may be out tonight due to COVID protocols. This adds to the long list of injured players for Miami, which puts them in a potentially brutal position here. The line is slowly turning towards Boston, a possible indication that the rumors are true, so I’ll buy cautiously here.

Tiny Nick has a record of 736-608 ATS (+79.4 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Each day it will offer its Locks and Degenerate choices. The locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun but riskier choices.