Home Gambling Tiny Nick’s game pick: 12/27

Tiny Nick’s game pick: 12/27

0
Locks

NBA (0.5 unit) Houston Rockets / Charlotte Hornets Over 235 (-110): 6:00 p.m. on Bally Sports SE

This game will be defined by fast pace and a disinterest in defense, and that should bring in a lot of points for two teams who are excellent in the end.

Charlotte is playing at the 2nd fastest pace in the NBA, while Houston is just behind at the 3rd pace. While their offenses are relatively ineffective, the quick styling more than makes up for it. The same is true of the fact that they are the two worst teams in the league from a defensive efficiency standpoint. It’s no surprise, then, that the Hornets are the best team in the league, and those teams have a combined 14-5-1 over their last 20 games.

Surplus tickets have been cashed at a much higher rate in recent weeks, especially with so many listing disruptions. Both of those teams are shorthanded tonight, and since neither of them cares much about defense in the first place, I see it’s a very high score.

NBA (0.5 unit) Utah Jazz / San Antonio Spurs Over 230 (-110): 7:30 p.m. CT on Bally Sports SW

I continue to ride with the league-wide overstretch in this one, especially given how strong San Antonio is at home.

The Spurs enter this game with the 2nd best NBA record at 18-12-2, and have a ridiculous 13-2-1 at home, which is by far the best in the league. I also see the style of this game leading to a lot of points, as Spurs struggle to defend all three while Utah take the most three in the league which puts them 4th highest. Add to that that San Antonio is on a back-to-back here, and that should give the Jazz no trouble scoring against weak defense.

These teams scored 254 points when they first met just 10 days ago, and while Donovan Mitchell will miss this game, I have no doubts the score will happen without him. Spurs are hot, having racked up 282 points in their last 2 games, so I will support the trend here with two very strong attacks.

Degenerate

NFL Miami Dolphins / New Orleans Saints Under 37.5 (-110): 7:15 p.m. CT on ESPN

This will probably be one of the ugliest Monday night football games of the season, and in that situation, I want the underside. But that number has dropped like a rock on the COVID news and the fact that fourth-round rookie Ian Book starts at QB for the Saints, so he’ll have to be extremely ugly.

Nonetheless, these teams both struggle to move the ball, ranking in the bottom third for yards per game. With their dire situation in QB, the Saints’ defense will have to play their best to compensate. With a Dolphins defense on the other side that only allows for 13.2 PPG during that 6-game winning streak, points should be tough to come by tonight.

Tiny Nick has been 503-389 ATS (+85.7 units) on his locks since joining Zone Coverage.

Every day, he will offer his locks and his degenerate choices. Locks are the games he trusts. Degenerates are fun choices, but riskier ones.