This weekend we have a ton of MMA action on the schedule with Bellator offering a Friday and Saturday doubleheader featuring three title fights, two bantamweight Grand Prix bouts, two Grand Prix qualifying bouts and a host of other actions. Also on Saturday, the UFC continues its ongoing series of events with UFC Vegas 52. There are a lot of fights, so let’s go ahead and look at some of the best bets available on the card.
All ratings are courtesy of our friends at DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the main event of Bellator 278, Carmouche will challenge Juliana Velasquez for the flyweight title, and she has a great chance of finally winning a championship belt. Velasquez is a former judoka with an undefeated record, but she’s still a bit of a disappointment. Velasquez’s ability to grapple and punch has carried her through her career so far, but Carmouche is just as well rounded and a much more assertive fighter. Simply put, I think Carmouche is as good or better than Velasquez in all phases and should bring this one home.
Meanwhile, at Bellator 279, former UFC lightweight Yancy Medeiros takes on two-time Bellator featherweight title challenger Emmanuel Sanchez in a lightweight contest. Both men are on significant losing streaks, but each has lost to the best competition. The difference is that Medeiros is the naturally bigger man and will get a major boost from the fights in Hawaii. Given that, I like the underdog value here.
At UFC Vegas 52 in the co-main event, Puelles is looking to keep his current winning streak alive when he takes on Clay Guida in the co-main event. Guida is 40 and at this point he’s getting by with his trickery and cardio, but Puelles is bigger, younger, quicker and quite balanced. Fade the old veteran in favor of the young prospect.
Bets on accessories
Jessica Andrade by KO/TKO, +175
Andrade is a force of nature whose career losses have all been either at bantamweight or against current or former champions. Andrade is currently the second-best flyweight in the world, behind only the best pound-for-pound woman in the sport, and her return to the strawweight division will only make her even more dangerous. Lemos is a great fighter, but with five rounds to go, Andrade should finish her.
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain Go to decision, -165
It’s going to be a gripping, action-packed affair, but both men are durable and should make it to the final bell if history is any indicator. Of the combined 18 UFC fights between Vannata and Jourdain, only 6 of them ended in a finish. At this rate, this line should be -200, so you are getting value.
Lando Vannata vs. Charles Jourdain ends in a split or majority decision, +475
Similar to the above, four of Vannata and Jourdain’s 18 combined UFC fights have ended in split decisions. It’s 22%, which implies a line of +350. Admittedly, split decisions are hard to predict, but there still seems to be some value here given the history of both men.
Montana De La Rose by submission, +600
Also on the main card of UFC Vegas 52, De La Rosa faces compatriot Maycee Barber. Barber is the more well-known of the two, given her propensity to embrace her own greatness, but De La Rosa might be the better fighter. Both have their limits, but De La Rosa is the better grappler, and if she can get a takedown or two, that might be enough to get the job done.
bet of the week
Cris Cyborg finished Arlene Blencowe-900
We already saw this fight 18 months ago and it went exactly as everyone thought. The only interesting wrinkle was that Cyborg won via submission instead of his usual knockout. There’s absolutely no reason for anyone to think things will go any different this time around, and the fact that Cyborg isn’t the biggest favorite this weekend is categorically insane.
Raufeon Stots finished Juan Archuleta (Bellator 279), -255
Stots is a multi-time D-II National Champion wrestler and Archuleta has proven to struggle with fighters who can constantly control where the action is. Plus, Archuleta’s most recent fight was a loss to Stots’ friend and teammate Sergio Pettis, which means Stots should be well prepared for what the former bantamweight champion brings to the cage. .
Kyoji Horiguchi finished Uneven mixing (Bellator 279), -225
Horiguchi has had some ups and downs recently, but Mix should provide him with a good opportunity to get back on track. Mix is a strong wrestler and will be the bigger man, but Horiguchi is just better all over. Add to that it’s five laps and Mix had trouble maintaining his pace in the final laps and Horiguchi would have to get his hands up, one way or another.
Multiply these three bets together for +123 odds.
Long shot of the week
Speak Chase Sherman and mike jackson+7100
Want a long shot? Well, it doesn’t get much longer than that. The two biggest underdogs on the UFC card put together will pay a nice 71 to 1. And I sincerely believe that line has value. Alexander Romanov is an undefeated prospect, but he relies heavily on his grappling, and for Sherman’s many faults, he doesn’t give up too many takedowns. And Mike Jackson is – well, he’s Mike Jackson, but Dean Barry is not a world champion. There’s no sane world where he should be a -1125 favorite. I think both underdogs have some value to them and the implied probability of this bet succeeding is 1.4%. If they’ve held this event 100 times, it looks like both upsets are happening more than once. Let’s find out.
After taking a week off, we’re back and looking to bounce back from a painful UFC 273. Aljamain Sterling really killed us (and everyone), but luckily we have plenty of opportunities to get back on track this weekend.
Good luck everyone and gamble responsibly!
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